"Predictions are hard to make, particularly about the future," is a famous quotation attributed to Yogi Berra.

Given its notoriously cyclical nature, the semiconductor business is indeed a risky one. All year round, fearless projections and forecasts are made. As we draw closer to yearend, however, we can expect more predictions from industry analysts and research firms. The technology/trade press is also joining the bandwagon, coming up with its own bold forecasts.

Not that I have anything against industry projections and forecasts. I believe that such information, and subsequent corrections and adjustments are an intrinsic part of the intellectual intensity that has become the hallmark of the semiconductor industry.

And it makes the whole space a lot more fun. We hear the mantra "Bluetooth is dead" one day, and see an erratum saying "Long live Bluetooth" the next.

This is not to set the grounds for some fearless projections of my own. I have just a few convictions as we move into a new year.

During my recent trip to Pakistan, I was astounded to see the rapidly expanding use of electronic devices, from cellphones to in-vehicle GPS to home appliances like microwave ovens. In big cities, almost everyone—from transport workers to laborers to housewives to high school students—carried a cellphone. The cellular fever is rushing into semi-urban areas, and slowly creeping into rural settings, for which cellphones are far more suitable as compared to landline telephones.

This is quite significant for a country with a population like Pakistan's. More noteworthy is the fact that people are not just looking for low-cost cellphones. They see cellular devices as a productivity tool more than a fashion statement.

Beyond cellphones, trendy consumer electronics products with slick displays and an array of A/V features are creating among consumers a desire for higher-quality entertainment. Urban housewives are also starting to understand the productivity benefits of a digital kitchen.

OEMs in mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea have long considered North America and Western Europe their key markets. It's about time these Asian manufacturers revisit their distribution channels and start looking closer to home.

While North America and Western Europe will continue to be critical markets in the years to come, emerging markets in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and South America where consumerism is high will likely drive further growth of electronics products, and subsequently, semiconductor devices.

Beyond wireless and consumer electronics, car electronics and power are expected to remain strong growth drivers of the semiconductor business. While the flash fever was a thrilling treat for the silicon industry, the DRAM comeback later in the year proved to be a welcome development as well.

The latest figures released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) validate the upward trend. According to SIA, global chip sales in Q3 of 2006 amounted to $64.1 billion compared to $59.3 billion in Q2, an increase of 8 percent.

SIA president George Scalise also cited strong demand for consumer products like cellphones, MP3 players and PCs as the key driver for increased chip sales.

With all these vital signs, there's absolutely no reason to predict a dull 2007.

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