Last year, I lamented the growing confusion in the communications industry due to several different standardization efforts. You have the wideband CDMA (W-CDMA), high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA), cdma2000 1x EV-DO (including CDMA 450), IEEE 802.11x, WiMAX, Wireless USB (over Ultrawideband), Bluetooth ver 2, Zigbee and a few others we don't talk about much these days.

Semiconductor and telecom equipment vendors know that making communication technologies ubiquitous is crucial to giving the electronics industry a big push forward. And the plethora of standards, with their different data rates and ranges, is a reflection of this realization.

Until last year, industry executives were careful to say that the various standards will each find a niche—the data rate and transmission range dictating the application and the target user segment. However, the standards overlap in terms of target applications and user segments. A mish-mash of standards existing in the same application space will confuse the consumer or, at the very least, drive up costs and hurt the electronics industry.

A shakeout is inevitable—out in the field where business decisions are made and in the pages of EE Times—Asia. Take, for instance, the opinion of Chenwei Yan, product line manager at UTStarcom Inc. Yan has compared TD-CDMA with WiMAX in at least one other publication. While the IEEE 802.16e—the mobile version of WiMAX—will address some issues outlined by Yan, equipment availability is not expected until next year.

A battle between 3G operators and wireless broadband carriers seems imminent. Once HSDPA increases UMTS network capacity, cellular operators will have a temporary advantage. What's more, as Yan points out, spectrum scarcity may become an issue for WiMAX in Europe. For the longer term, however, Siemens AG and NTT Docomo Inc. are independently working on delivering 1Gbps data rates using multiple antenna systems and orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM). WiMAX also uses OFDM-based modulation.

In the wireless personal area network (WPAN) space, the main contenders are the recently-ratified Zigbee, Wireless USB and Bluetooth. Zigbee, with its 250Kbps data rate, low power consumption (several years on a single charge) and about 65,000 allowed nodes, is targeted squarely at control applications such as home and industrial automation. In a typical HVAC application, the number of nodes possible may be much less than that, but still more than what might be possible with Bluetooth ver 2 + enhanced data rate.

The Bluetooth ver 2 increases data rates from 1Mbps to 3Mbps. However, IEEE 802.11x WLANs in the enterprise market and Wireless USB in the consumer market are squeezing out Bluetooth. Wireless USB will deliver 480Mbps in a radius of up to 3m. Even when delivering 110Mbps at up to 10m, Wireless USB exceeds Bluetooth data rates by a very wide margin.

A race for being the first to market has emerged among backers of various standards. And none too soon despite the obvious risk involved. Wireless communications technology is poised to enter your office, your home and your pocket. Just as miniaturization and power management became underlying trends for most equipment, wireless communication will be the next "feature" that cuts across electronics user segments.

A shakeout among standards is not only inevitable, it is desirable. Further delay will only cause major electronics markets to flatten out, if not tip in the wrong direction.

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