Asia will push PV installations to 46GW in 2014
IHS has reported that the worldwide solar photovoltaic (PV) installations will increase by 22 per cent this year, largely as a result of recent policy changes in the two largest markets, China and Japan. Global installations in 2014 will rise to 46GW, which is 5GW higher than had been predicted in October 2013, based on a quarterly review of PV installations in more than 100 countries conducted by the IHS PV Demand Tracker Service.
IHS has increased its forecast in light of recent policy changes in China and Japan. The announcement by the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) that it would increase its target for ground-mount PV projects, as well as its total installation goal, was a key factor in driving up the forecast.
"IHS previously expressed its doubts about the Chinese government's capability to reach an ambitious target of 8GW worth of rooftop solar projects in 2014," said Ash Sharma, senior director of solar research at IHS. "While IHS still predicts this goal will not be met, China's recent announcement that it will shift its focus to ground-mount projects and increase its installation target for this segment to 6GW has led us to raise our forecast for 2014."
IHS predicted that China will install 4.8GW of rooftop projects and 8GW of ground-mount projects in 2014, some 2GW higher than the NRDC's target. Total installations in China will amount to 13GW this year, compared to 10GW in 2013.
Europe's decline is anticipated to continue in 2014. China this year for the first time will install more PV capacity than the whole of Europe, based on the latest IHS forecast.
European PV installations in 2014 will fall to 9.7GW, marking the third annual decline from the peak year of 2011, when the total amounted to 19GW. IHS slashed its forecast for European installations in 2014 by nearly 700MW due to reductions in Germany and also Ukraine, the latter as a result of the political uncertainty in Crimea.
"Despite the continued reduction of government support for PV in Europe, worldwide growth is continuing as conditions elsewhere around the globe continue to improve," Sharma added. "The long-term IHS outlook for worldwide PV installations remains largely unchanged, with double-digit annual growth predicted for the next five years and total installed capacity exceeding 400GW at the end of 2018. IHS has identified 32 countries that will install more than 100MW this year, and seven of these surpassing 1GW."
The other major change to the IHS 2014 PV solar forecast came from Japan.
Although IHS did cut its forecast for residential PV installations in Japan this year, the outlook for commercial and ground-mount sectors is now more robust than it was back in 4Q13, following detailed channel and supply agreement checks.
"IHS expects the residential PV market in Japan to decline this year," Sharma explained. "Although the reduction in Japan's feed-in-tariff (FIT) conformed precisely to IHS expectations, other factors will cause the residential market to decline. These factors include the increase in sales tax on domestic PV systems, the expiration of the additional up-front subsidy and the slowdown in new housing construction."
The residential weakness is forecast to be more than compensated for by the strong commercial rooftop market. IHS expects the rooftop segment will account for about 60 per cent of the total of 9GW that will be installed in Japan this year. This will represent 45 per cent growth from 6.3GW in 2013.
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