IEEE: 75% of cars to roll the streets in 2040 will be driverless
"With any form of intelligent transportation, building the infrastructure to accommodate it is often the largest barrier to widespread adoption," noted Alberto Broggi, IEEE senior member and professor of computer engineering at the University of Parma in Italy. "Since we can use the existing networks of roadways, autonomous vehicles are advantageous for changing how the majority of the world will travel on a daily basis."
The increased use of driverless cars will be the catalyst for transforming vehicular travel in the next 28 years, sparking dramatic changes in intersections, traffic flows, highways and even drivers' licenses.
Driverless cars operate through use of sophisticated, communicating sensors to ensure safe and efficient travel. Through vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication there may be no need for traffic lights and stop signs when all of the cars on the road are driverless. "Intersections will be equipped with sensors, cameras and radars that can monitor and control traffic flow to help eliminate driver collisions and promote a more efficient flow of traffic. The cars will be operating automatically, thereby eliminating the need for traffic lights," added Broggi.
Highway travel would also change significantly with more autonomous vehicles on the road. Both autonomous and traditional vehicles would have their own designated lanes, which would help minimize traffic jams, increase efficiency and allow for faster speeds. "Through use of dedicated lanes on the highway, it will provide more streamlined flows of traffic, which will make the transportation with these vehicles more energy efficient," indicated Azim Eskandarian, IEEE member and director of the Center for Intelligent Systems Research.�"This new traffic flow, coupled with the increase of automated travel, will also enable cars to travel more safely while going faster and perhaps with closer gaps in between them, while platooning (or using autonomous features), specially at free-flow traffic."
Broggi believes that, "speed limits of up to 160kph are absolutely possible by 2040."
Autonomous vehicles will also make car sharing programs more prevalent. Autonomous vehicles will arrive, take you to your destination and then be ready for the next user. "Since cars today are parked for more than 90 percent of their lifetime, shared car services will promote more continuous movement, garner more efficient operation and use less gas," said Broggi.
Driverless vehicle sharing programs will also enable people of all ages and abilities to use these vehicles, thereby eliminating the need for having a driver's license. "People do not need a license to sit on a train or a bus," said Eskandarian. "In a full autonomy case in which no driver intervention will be allowed, the car will be operating autonomously, so there will not be any special requirements for drivers or occupants to use the vehicle as a form of transportation, but the vehicles will obviously need many more certifications and should meet new standards."
Despite all of the benefits, driver and passenger acceptance are the largest barriers to widespread adoption of driverless cars. "Drivers and passengers are hesitant to believe in the technology enough to completely hand over total control," said Jeffrey Miller, IEEE member and associate professor in the computer systems engineering department at University of Alaska Anchorage. "Car manufacturers have already started to incorporate automated features, including parallel parking assistance, automatic braking systems and drowsy driver protection, to help people slowly ease into utilizing driverless technologies. Over the next 28 years, use of more automated technologies will spark a snowball effect of acceptance and driverless vehicles will dominate the road."
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